Home

Site Map

Contact RAC

Join RAC

Search

Français

Nouvelles

Canada

International

Satellite


  Log Into Members' Section  
Register Mbr. No.: Password: Forgot your password?

RAC

2011-10-01

[EMCOMM]: Forward: Watch - 2011-10-01 19:46:39 UTC
2011-10-01

Good afternoon,

Here is the latest update issued at 3:13 pm ADT.

Here is the latest update. As it now appears that the most significant impact will be on the St. John's area, population density becomes a factor. If activation of the PEOC goes ahead tomorrow night, VO1EMO will monitor 3.740 and the NL Linked Repeater System through Echolink node 278794. Your usual assistance and cooperation is appreciated.

73

Doug Mercer VO1DM CEC
Vice President Field Services
P.O. Box 1042 - Goulds, NL A1S 1H2
Tel: 709-364-4741
Cell: 709-697-3319
E-mail: dougvo1dtm@gmail.com

====================================================================

WWCN31 CWHX 011944
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:44 PM ADT SATURDAY 1 OCTOBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

      HURRICANE OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE
      SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH A
      POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

      A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
      INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
      THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
GIVEN THE CLOSE RANGE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA'S TRACK TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR THAT REGION.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (60 GUSTING TO
90 KM/H) FROM OPHELIA.

THIS IS NOT A WARNING - BUT SIMPLY A REMINDER TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
FORECASTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA CLOSELY IN THE EVENT OPHELIA TRACKS
FARTHER NORTH.  IN TERMS OF WAVES, IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AVALON (AND
BURIN) PENINSULA.  MORE DETAILS REGARDING WAVE CONDITIONS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE BULLETIN UNDER HEADER WOCN31
CWHX OR AT WWW.HURRICANES.CA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/FOGARTY/TELFORD

WOCN31 CWHX 011856 CCA
Tropical cyclone information statement corrected by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:56 PM ADT Saturday
1 October 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For hurricane Ophelia.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

      Corrected bulletin - replacing 'minus' with 'metres' in
      Section 3.  Hurricane Ophelia tracking northward this weekend -
      Affects in parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland late Sunday
      And Monday.

 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 PM ADT.

Location: near 30.5 north 62.8 west.

About 270 kilometres southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: near 195 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 40 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 952 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Ophelia is forecast to remain at or near category-three intensity for 
the remainder of the day and pass east of Bermuda this evening. 
Meanwhile an unrelated non-tropical weather system with a frontal 
zone extending into the tropics will remain nearly stationary over 
Nova Scotia and Western Newfoundland for the remainder of the 
weekend.  Ophelia and the rain associated with it is not forecast to 
move into Southeastern Newfoundland until Monday morning.

Computer models are showing different scenarios for Ophelia's track - 
ranging from the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland to 200 kilometres 
south of the Avalon.

A. Wind.

Greatest chance for strong winds from Ophelia is over the Burin and 
Avalon peninsulas of Newfoundland.  At this point in time, there is 
about a 50% chance of tropical storm force winds over Eastern
Newfoundland.  Tropical storm force is approximately 60 gusting to
90 km/h.  A tropical storm watch may be issued later today or tonight 
for these regions.  Chance of hurricane-force gusts (120 km/h) in 
this area remains low at 5-10%.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for parts of Nova Scotia for rain 
from the stalled non-tropical system.

This stalled frontal system could tap in to some of Ophelia's 
moisture tonight through Monday giving the possibility of additional 
heavy rainfall over Eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Rainfall directly from Ophelia is expected over Eastern Newfoundland. 
Expect a 4 to 6 hour period of heavy rainfall over these regions 
Monday morning.  50 to 75 millimetres is possible with rainfall rates 
up to 20 millimetres/hour.

C. Surge/waves.

Waves will be a concern along the South Coast of Newfoundland Monday. 
We are still establishing details of what to expect in terms of wave 
heights, but 5-7 metre waves are likely along the South Coast of
Newfoundland - Fortune bay and east.  Ocean swell will also begin to 
reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later Sunday and Monday. 
Incident swell height of 3 metres breaking in the 4-metre 
(10-14-foot) range is possible late Sunday night along the Atlantic 
coast of Nova Scotia.  With regard to storm surge, 40 to 60 cm is 
possible Monday morning around the Avalon and Burin peninsulas.
This should not pose significant problems but a farther-north track 
would necessitate an increase in forecast water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Given Ophelia's expected track brings it near southeastern Maritimes 
marine areas by Sunday evening, a storm warning has been issued for 
Laurentian Fan.  Storm or possibly hurricane force winds could effect 
the fan and most likely the Grand Banks Monday.

Large waves are expected - especially to the right (southeast) and 
close to Ophelia's track as it moves into Canadian waters.
Greatest threat for large waves is over the Grand Banks.
Wave heights up to 10 metres are possible.  More details will be 
established later today.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the 
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings 
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY